Written By Adam Wachtel PREC* of The Patti Martin Real Estate Group, REMAX Westcoast in Richmond, BC

Has the Vancouver Real Estate Market Hit Bottom?

What Buyers Need to Know in Early 2026

After a sharp slowdown in Metro Vancouver real estate activity, one question continues to come up in nearly every buyer conversation:

“Has the market hit bottom—and is now a good time to buy?”

With sales down significantly, inventory rising, and mortgage rates beginning to ease, early 2026 has created a very different landscape compared to just a few years ago. Let’s break down what the latest data is telling us—and what it means if you’re considering a purchase.

The Slowdown: How We Got Here

The January 2026 market update confirmed what many buyers and sellers felt throughout 2025: demand has cooled.

* Sales were down nearly **29% year-over-year**

* Transactions sat **well below the 10-year average**

* It marked one of the slowest Januarys in over two decades

This isn’t the result of a single factor. Instead, the slowdown has been driven by a combination of:

* Higher borrowing costs over the past two years

* Economic and political uncertainty

* Affordability constraints

* Buyer hesitation waiting for “better timing”

In short, it’s been a confidence-driven slowdown as much as a financial one.

Has the Market Hit Bottom?

This is the million-dollar question—and the honest answer is nuanced.

From a **pricing perspective**, benchmark home values are down roughly **5–7% year-over-year** depending on property type. Prices have been drifting rather than falling sharply, which suggests a market correcting—not crashing.

From a **market activity perspective**, the sales-to-active listings ratio is sitting around **9%**, well below the 12% threshold that typically signals downward pressure on prices.

What does this mean?

* We are likely **near the bottoming phase** of the cycle

* But we may not yet be in a rebound

* The market appears to be **stabilizing, not accelerating**

Bottoms are only obvious in hindsight. They form when demand quietly returns—not when headlines still feel negative.

Inventory Is High—And That Changes Everything

One of the biggest stories in the January update is supply.

* Active listings are nearly **10% higher than last year**

* Inventory sits roughly **38% above the 10-year average**

For buyers, this creates conditions we haven’t seen in years:

More Choice

Buyers can compare properties without rushing into decisions.

Negotiating Power

Subjects, price negotiations, and longer decision timelines have returned.

Less Competition

Multiple offers are far less common in most segments. This is why many buyers who were previously priced out are re-entering the conversation.

High inventory doesn’t just improve selection—it improves leverage.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy?

The answer depends on strategy, not headlines. Here’s how to think about it:

✔️ Pros of Buying Now

**1. Softer Prices**

Values have adjusted from peak levels, particularly in the condo and townhouse segments.

**2. High Inventory**

More options mean better alignment with lifestyle and long-term needs.

**3. Negotiation Opportunities**

Buyers can secure price reductions, repairs, or favorable terms.

**4. Less Emotional Buying**

You’re competing on logic—not panic.

⚠️ Considerations

**1. Market Could Stay Flat**

Forecasts suggest 2026 prices may remain relatively unchanged overall.

**2. Short-Term Appreciation May Be Limited**

This is more of a stability phase than a growth phase.

For long-term buyers, however, timing the exact bottom matters far less than securing the right property under favorable conditions.

The Mortgage Rate Factor:

Perhaps the most important variable ahead is interest rates.

After aggressive hikes in prior years, we’re now seeing the early stages of rate relief—or at minimum, stabilization.

How Lower Rates Impact Affordability

Even small rate declines can have outsized effects:

* Lower monthly payments

* Increased borrowing capacity

* Improved debt-service ratios

* More buyer confidence

For example, a modest rate drop can increase purchasing power by tens of thousands of dollars.

The Psychology of Rates

Here’s what many buyers overlook:

Home prices adjust slowly.

Buyer demand adjusts quickly.

If mortgage rates decline meaningfully:

* More buyers re-enter the market

* Competition increases

* Inventory gets absorbed

* Price stability returns

In other words, waiting for lower rates often means facing higher competition.

Timing the Market vs. Timing Your Life

Trying to perfectly time the bottom is extremely difficult—even for professionals.

A more practical framework is:

Buy when:

* You’re financially ready

* You plan to hold long term

* The property fits your needs

* Negotiation conditions favor you

Today’s market offers something rare:

Choice + negotiating power + improving financing conditions.

That combination doesn’t tend to last once momentum returns.

Final Thoughts: Where Do We Go From Here?

The January 2026 data suggests we are in a late-slowdown / early-stabilization phase:

* Sales remain soft

* Inventory is elevated

* Prices are drifting modestly lower

* Buyers remain cautious

* Rate relief could shift momentum

Has the market hit bottom?

We may be close—but confirmation will only come once sales activity and buyer confidence begin to rise.

For now, this market may represent a strategic window for buyers who want leverage rather than competition.